Russia’s recolonization war against Ukraine
Deep-rooted social causes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35295/osls.iisl.2467Palabras clave:
Guerra de recolonización, legitimidad del sistema, Rusia, UcraniaResumen
Desde 2022, la guerra contra Ucrania se ha convertido en un pilar central del sistema político de Rusia, con origen en la evolución social del país en el período postsoviético. Una dificultad primordial en esta época ha sido una crisis recurrente de legitimidad. Este artículo argumenta que la guerra de recolonización contra Ucrania ha servido como instrumento de legitimación del sistema establecido dentro del país. Usando datos del Levada-Centr y OVD-Info, este artículo examina el rol dela guerra en la legitimación del sistema. Explora los mecanismos sociales por los cuales la agresión externa de Rusia ayuda a mitigar las tensiones sociales internas, acumuladas en su disfuncional sistema socioeconómico y autoritario, dotando a ese sistema de "dividendos de guerra". Un análisis de series cronológicas revela que la guerra a escala total contra Ucrania ha permitido a las autoridades rusas pasar a un nuevo y superior nivel de legitimación del sistema, representando un equilibrio nuevo relativamente estable a largo plazo. Contrariamente a la hipótesis inicial del autor, la guerra de baja intensidad tuvo, en general, un efecto deslegitimador, sin que las estadísticas revelen un nuevo equilibrio estable en ese caso. Aún más, el estado de paz no tuvo un efecto estadísticamente significativo en la legitimidad del sistema.
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