Russia’s recolonization war against Ukraine
Deep-rooted social causes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35295/osls.iisl.2467Keywords:
Recolonization war, system legitimacy, Russia, UkraineAbstract
Since 2022, the war against Ukraine has become a central pillar of the Russian political system, arising from the country’s societal evolution in the post-Soviet period. A primary challenge during this era has been a recurring crisis of legitimacy. This paper argues that the recolonization war against Ukraine has served as a tool for the domestic legitimation of the established system. Utilizing data from Levada-Centr and OVD-INFO, the paper examines the role of warfare in system legitimation. It explores the social mechanisms by which Russia’s external aggression helps mitigate domestic social tensions accumulated within its dysfunctional socioeconomic and authoritarian political system, providing this system with a “war dividend”. Time series analysis reveals that the full-scale war against Ukraine has allowed Russian authorities to shift toward a new, higher level of system legitimacy, representing a new, relatively stable long-run equilibrium. Contrary to the author’s initial hypothesis, low-intensity war generally exhibited a delegitimizing effect, with no statistical evidence of a new stable equilibrium in that instance. Furthermore, the state of peace had no statistically significant influence on system legitimacy.
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