Actors, Scripts, Scenes and Scenarios: Key Trends in Policy and Research on the Organisation of Serious Crimes
Keywords:
Transnational organised crime, anticipatory governance, threat assessment, organised crime groups, crime scripts, scenario methodologies,Abstract
The problem of ‘transnational organised crime’ has become a prominent issue in international affairs over the past two decades. Official constructions of the problem identify threats to public safety resulting from the greater mobility of people and goods across national borders and the exploitation of this mobility by ‘organised crime groups’ (OCGs). In turn, this has led to the generation of a new genre of policy-oriented learning, the ‘threat assessment’, which informs and legitimises the cross-border co-ordination of preventive interventions against such groups. This article considers arguments over the conceptual and methodological value of these threat assessments and their central preoccupation with criminal actors. An alternative approach is advanced, concerned with the ‘scripts’ involved in the commissioning of serious crimes and their facilitating conditions or ‘scenes’. This approach can also identify future ‘scenarios’, providing less certain but more satisficing grounds for anticipating and governing the organisation of serious crimes.
El problema de la "delincuencia organizada transnacional" se ha convertido en un tema importante en los asuntos internacionales durante las últimas dos décadas. Las interpretaciones oficiales del problema identifican amenazas a la seguridad pública derivadas de la mayor movilidad de personas y bienes en las fronteras nacionales y la explotación de esta movilidad por "grupos de crimen organizado". A su vez, esto ha llevado a la generación de una nueva disciplina de aprendizaje orientada a las políticas, la "evaluación de amenaza", que informa y legitima la coordinación transfronteriza de intervenciones preventivas contra esos grupos. Este artículo analiza argumentos sobre el valor conceptual y metodológico de estas evaluaciones de amenazas y su preocupación principal hacia los actores criminales. Se plantea un enfoque alternativo, relacionado con los "guiones" implicados en la comisión de delitos graves y las condiciones que los favorecen o "escenas del crimen". Este enfoque también puede identificar "escenarios" futuros, ofreciendo bases para anticipar y gobernar la organización de crímenes graves menos seguras pero mínimamente más aceptables.
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